Call me crazy, but this is a little more than exciting. It’s kind of like Christmas Eve with Hanukah-like gift giving for an entire month, each gift a game wrapped in playoff ribbon just waiting to be opened and played. And with an MLB career high of 16 teams ready to crash the playoff party, I can’t wait to see what unfolds. I smell drama, mama.
To those who turn their noses up at this, I say viva la difference, and pay attention. We may never witness anything like this again. It’s an opportunity to glutton to the point of saturation, and let it weigh us down in the offseason and relieve the anxiety of waiting for February. Will this be foreshadowing of future changes to our game, part or parcel, or the raising of an axe to a golden goose? I will care later, for sure, but not now.
This year’s playoffs have a March Madness tinge to it, with a Sweet Sixteen to start and no days off between games in the first two rounds. A tourney that welcomes back the Marlins, White Sox, Reds and Blue Jays. A tourney that welcomes back Cole, Ryu, and Clevinger in different uniforms. A tourney that, absent the voice of fans, welcomes back the Astros whether deserved or not.
This will be a test of arms, endurance, and health in more ways than normally thought of. This is, after all, a less than normal set of circumstances. Circumstances that deserve a less than normal round of playoffs in the national pastime. This will be a call to arms, be sure of that, and arms will be the deciding factor. When wondering how this will play out, thoughts of what the Nationals accomplished last year makes the mouth water for more of that tasty postseason. Can they do it again? Let’s check out the arms.
In 2019, the Nationals had two top aces, a versatile lefty and a veteran who knew how to turn up the playoff volume. Give me Scherzer and Strasburg and I know I have a chance. The Astros also had two top aces and traded for another to gear up for a playoff run. Give me Cole, Verlander and Greinke and I think I have a better chance. Looking back, it really turned out to be simple. The Series went seven, won by the Nationals 4 (two aces, versatile lefty and veteran in playoff mode) to the Astros 3 (Cole, Verlander and Greinke). Right?
Let’s test that out. As of the eve of the playoffs, the Astros, Marlins, Cubs and Padres have not even set probable pitchers for the Wild Card series. Cross them off. The Rays, Twins, Indians, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Reds have named a pitcher for all three games. Unfortunately, the Rays and Blue Jays face off, so one will not advance. Experienced arms matter, so let’s give this series to the Rays, 2-1 (Morton and Snell to Ryu). Got it? Now move those teams up. Looking at the Marlins-Cubs, let’s give this series to the Cubs (Darvish, Hendricks to the playoff experience of Jeter, willing the Marlins to one win). Finally, the A’s-White Sox show a pair of probables, with the White Sox edging the A’s 2-1 (Giolito, Keuchel to one late inning heroic A’s victory).
This gives us an Elite Eight of Rays-Indians, Dodgers-Cardinals, Twins-White Sox and Cubs-Reds. This is where we diverge to quality a bit. The Dodgers can throw a future ace in Dustin May in the mix, and I don’t believe the Cardinals can manage their way to a series win against their overall talent. Dogers win it 3-1, and as a fan of class in the talent, I am hoping one of the three is Kershaw. Twins-White Sox by virtue of Maeda, Berrios and Pineda being one better than Keuchel and Giolito will go five games. The Cubs-Reds series shapes up to be one of the more dramatic series, as the arms of the Reds gets them over in game five (Bauer, Castillo and Gray to Darvish and Hendricks). The Rays-Indians also shapes up to be dramatic, with the edge to the Rays in experience (Snell, Morton, Glasnow to Bieber and Plesac).
The Final Four will then match up the Rays-Twins and Dodgers-Reds, and this is where the arms theory gets put to the test. Here the Rays go all out with a stable of arms and possibly an opener, and shut down the Twins in a series sweep. Let’s call it Snell, Morton, Glasnow and Opener to nil. Though this series may be a sweep, it could involve a couple of extra inning games as these two teams seem to be well matched, with dare I say the Rays defense managing to keep the Twins in a game or two. The theory gets tested even further, as the Reds take down the Dodgers in six (Bauer + Castillo + Gray times two, to the Dodgers Beuhler and Kershaw). Wait, what? Ok, like baseball, theories have some math to them.
So this brings us to the World Series, and hopes for another tasty morsel like the 2019 Series. These arms match up well, as you pit Bauer against Snell, Castillo against Morton and Gray against Glasnow, and then the intriguing Opener against Mahle. This sets up for another seven game series, with the difference being that the away team will win every game this year. The drama between these two teams will come down to who will defend and who will close, and is very close to call – until you turn to the arms theory. And the arms theory says the Rays will prevail, Opener, Snell, Morton and Glasnow to Bauer, Castillo and Gray. Look, I’m disappointed my team isn’t in it, but you can’t argue with the arms theory, can you?
I just can’t wait for it to be wrong. It’s time to throw out that first pitch and get it on. October is almost here.
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